Leveraging geo-intelligence to map land suitability for private sector investment in agricultural value chains in Africa: A case study of Malawi
Gladys Mosomtai, Joan Kagwanja, Guy Ranaivomanana
The Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP), a continental framework underpinned by the AU Agenda 2063 rallies the African countries to alleviate hunger and poverty by setting aside atleast 10% of their budgetary allocations for agricultural development and attracting private sector investments. Since 2000, private sector investment in land-based activities has significantly increased with contracts in different stages of which 87% of the deals are mainly for large-scale agricultural production. However, the new ‘rush for land’ in Africa has not spurred the expected economic growth. Most of the existing deals are underutilized due to insufficient prior information about land productivity, water availability, border conflicts with the surrounding communities, and long-term land deal insecurity, among other factors. The African Union endorsed the Guiding Principles on Large Scale Land Based Investment to protect the local communities from exploitation whilst profiting the investors and ensuring that the investments are sustainable and environmentally friendly. However, many countries lack the appropriate tools and information to domesticate these principles to guide their engagement with private investors. In this study, we use Malawi as our case study to demonstrate how African countries can leverage geo-technologies to identify suitable land for private sector investments in agricultural value chains. Firstly, we mapped suitable areas for growing tobacco, maize and groundnuts using a machine-learning modelling framework based on ecological conditions. Secondly, we incorporated a multi-criteria decision analysis model to identify the optimum areas for targeted investment based on socio-economic factors such as access to infrastructure, markets and regions with low population density. The study showed that Malawi has the potential to double the production of maize and increase tobacco and groundnut production by two-thirds. We also noted that tobacco and groundnuts had similar land suitability given that they shared similar ecological conditions, access to roads, grid connection and low population densities in the regions identified as optimum. These regions could benefit from developing agro parks that leverage economies of scale to create multiple value chains. Finally, the methodology adopted in this study can be replicated in other countries given the advancement in data availability through GIS and remote sensing technologies and state of the art modelling frameworks.
Event: World Bank Land Conference 2024 - Washington
Only personal, non-commercial use of this document is allowed.