Land Concentration and Long-Run Development in the Frontier United States
Cory Smith
I study the long-run economic effects of land concentration on the American frontier. Using quasi-random variation in initial land allocations from a checkerboard formula, I analyze a large database of property assessments and find that historical concentration reduced modern land values by 4.5% and fixed capital by 23%. Modern effect sizes are 23%—64% of their historical equivalents, indicating significant rates of both persistence and convergence over the last 150 years. Using archival data on tenant contracts, I argue that the low-powered incentives of share agreements discouraged investment by large-scale owners with long-term effects.
Event: World Bank Land Conference 2024 - Washington
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